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CDIA Stock Review: Worth It Gak Sih Invest di Perusahaan Milik Prajogo Pangestu Ini?

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IPO Terbesar 2025: Saham yang Auto ARA di Hari Pertama

9 Juli 2025.

Hampir 400,000 investor rebutan saham CDIA.

Menit pertama trading: Auto Rejection Atas (ARA).

Harga IPO Rp 190 → Langsung loncat ke Rp 256 (limit atas 25%).

Dana yang terkumpul: Rp 2,37 TRILIUN.

Ini bukan IPO biasa. Ini adalah IPO terbesar 2025 dari konglomerat Prajogo Pangestu—orang terkaya ke-2 Indonesia dengan kekayaan $43,4 miliar (Forbes 2025).

Tapi pertanyaan besarnya:

Sekarang harga udah Rp 1.735 (Oktober 2025), worth it gak buat masuk?

Atau lo udah telat dan better cari saham lain?

Di artikel ini, gue bakal breakdown:

✅ Bisnis model CDIA - Energi, logistik, pelabuhan, air
✅ Fundamental analysis - Revenue, profit, aset, debt
✅ Valuasi - PER, PBV, apakah murah atau mahal?
✅ Kelebihan & kekurangan - Honest assessment
✅ Prospek masa depan - Growth potential
✅ Risiko yang harus lo tau - What could go wrong
✅ Rekomendasi investasi - Buy, hold, atau avoid?

Plus: Perbandingan dengan kompetitor dan action plan untuk investor pemula!

Warning: After reading this, lo bakal tau apakah CDIA adalah hidden gem atau overhyped stock.

Ready untuk deep dive? Let's analyze! 💼📊

PART 1: Profil Perusahaan - Siapa CDIA?

Nama Lengkap:

PT Chandra Daya Investasi Tbk

Kode Saham: CDIA

IPO Date: 9 Juli 2025

Harga IPO: Rp 190 per saham

Harga Saat Ini (31 Oktober 2025): Rp 1.735 per saham (+813% dari IPO!)




Struktur Kepemilikan:

Setelah IPO:

  • PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk (TPIA): 60% (kontroler utama)
  • Phoenix Power B.V. (EGCO Group - Thailand): 30%
  • Publik: 10%

Siapa di Balik CDIA?

Prajogo Pangestu - Orang terkaya #2 Indonesia

  • Owner Grup Barito Pacific
  • Controlling shareholder TPIA (petrokimia terbesar Indonesia)
  • Net worth: $43,4 miliar
  • Track record: Membangun empires di petrochemical, property, infrastructure

EGCO Group - Electricity Generating Public Company (Thailand)

  • Market cap: $4,5 miliar
  • Salah satu perusahaan listrik terbesar di Asia Tenggara
  • Strategic partner untuk pilar energi CDIA

Translation: CDIA backed by billionaire conglomerate + regional energy giant. Backing yang super kuat!

Apa Bisnis CDIA?

CDIA adalah perusahaan investasi infrastruktur yang support ekosistem industri, terutama petrokimia.

4 Pilar Bisnis Utama:

Pilar 1: ENERGI (73,26% dari pendapatan)

Dikelola oleh: PT Krakatau Chandra Energi (KCE)

Bisnis:

  • Supply listrik ke kawasan industri Cilegon, Banten
  • Melayani 216 pelanggan industri + 1,609 pelanggan rumah tangga
  • Operasi dan pemeliharaan (O&M)
  • Engineering procurement construction (EPC)
  • Instalasi jaringan listrik

Kenapa Penting:

  • Revenue stream paling besar (73%!)
  • Recurring revenue (listrik always needed)
  • Customer captive (industri di Cilegon butuh)

Kontribusi: 73,26% pendapatan tahun 2024

Pilar 2: LOGISTIK (5,50% dari pendapatan)

Dikelola oleh:

  • PT Chandra Shipping International (CSI)
  • PT Marina Indah Maritim (MIM)
  • Sarana Bandar Logistik (SBL) - untuk logistik darat

Bisnis:

  • Jasa perkapalan untuk industri petrokimia, gas, minyak
  • 7 kapal pengangkut bahan kimia dan gas (kapasitas 5.000-8.600 DWT)
  • Logistik darat: 155 unit armada truk
  • Angkutan antar pulau, ekspor-impor, kepabeanan, manajemen gudang

Fokus Ekspansi:

  • Rencana tambah 7 kapal baru di 2025
  • Total investasi kapal: US$90 juta (dari TPIA) + US$95 juta (dari EGCO)

Kontribusi: 5,50% pendapatan tahun 2024

Catatan: Kontribusi kecil tapi ini adalah focus area untuk growth. Majority dana IPO dialokasikan ke sini!

Pilar 3: PELABUHAN & PENYIMPANAN (4,67% dari pendapatan)

Dikelola oleh:

  • PT Redeco Petrolin Utama (RPU)
  • PT Chandra Samudera Port (CSP)
  • PT Chandra Cilegon Port (CCP)

Bisnis:

  • Jasa operasi pelabuhan (bongkar muat barang)
  • Sewa tangki untuk produk kimia dan minyak bumi
  • Fasilitas dermaga
  • Terminal curah cair (liquid bulk terminal)

Strategic Importance:

  • Support supply chain petrokimia TPIA
  • Infrastructure critical untuk industri kimia
  • Barrier to entry tinggi (capital intensive)

Kontribusi: 4,67% pendapatan tahun 2024

Ekspansi: Majority dana IPO (63,2%) untuk pembangunan tangki penyimpanan, pipa saluran ethylene, dan fasilitas penunjang.

Pilar 4: AIR BERSIH (16,58% dari laba bersih)

Dikelola oleh: PT Krakatau Tirta Industri (KTI) - perusahaan asosiasi

Bisnis:

  • Penyediaan dan pengelolaan air bersih
  • Air baku dari Sungai Cidanau dan Sungai Cipasauran
  • Supply ke kawasan industri Cilegon

Kontribusi: 16,58% laba bersih tahun 2024

Model Bisnis: Infrastructure Ecosystem

Key Insight:

CDIA bukan perusahaan standalone. Mereka adalah enabler infrastructure untuk ekosistem industri, terutama TPIA (parent company).

Synergy:

  1. TPIA butuh listrik → KCE supply
  2. TPIA butuh air → KTI supply
  3. TPIA butuh transport bahan kimia → CSI/MIM supply
  4. TPIA butuh storage & port → RPU/CSP/CCP provide

Business Model: Captive customer (TPIA) + Expand ke third-party customers

Pros: ✅ Revenue stability (captive customer) ✅ Predictable cash flow ✅ Low customer acquisition cost

Cons: ❌ Customer concentration risk (dependent on TPIA) ❌ Limited market jika hanya fokus internal grup

PART 2: Fundamental Analysis - Gimana Performanya?

Kinerja Keuangan (2024 vs 2023):

Revenue (Pendapatan):

2023: US$ 75,76 juta (11 bulan)
2024: US$ 102,25 juta (12 bulan)
Growth: +35% year-over-year

Dalam Rupiah (kurs Rp 16.300):

2024: Rp 1,67 triliun

Analysis: ✅ Growth konsisten 35% - sangat bagus! ✅ Driven by semua pilar bisnis growing

Laba Bersih (Net Profit):

2023: US$ 1,87 juta
2024: US$ 32,69 juta
Growth: +1.648% (!!!)

Dalam Rupiah:

2024: Rp 533 miliar

Analysis: ✅ Profit explosion! Dari barely profitable ke highly profitable ✅ Margin improvement signifikan ✅ Efisiensi operasional + scale effect

Net Profit Margin:

2023: 2,47% (very thin!)
2024: 31,98% (excellent!)

Q1 2025 Performance (Maret 2025):

Revenue:

Q1 2024: US$ 24,53 juta (Rp 400 miliar)
Q1 2025: US$ 34,64 juta (Rp 565 miliar)
Growth: +41% year-over-year

Laba Bersih:

Q1 2024: US$ 8,13 juta (Rp 133 miliar)
Q1 2025: US$ 30,23 juta (Rp 493 miliar)
Growth: +272% (!!!)

Analysis: ✅ Momentum terus berlanjut! ✅ Q1 2025 profit hampir sama dengan full year 2024 ✅ Annualized, projected profit 2025 could reach Rp 2+ triliun!

Total Aset:

2023: US$ 925 juta
2024: US$ 1,08 miliar
Growth: +17%

Breakdown (2024):

  • Aset Lancar: US$ 282,5 juta (naik dari US$ 263 juta)
  • Aset Tidak Lancar: US$ 813 juta (naik dari US$ 291 juta - 3x lipat!)

Analysis: ✅ Massive capex untuk growth (kapal, port, storage) ✅ Asset base strengthening

Liabilitas (Debt):

2023: US$ 206,93 juta
2024: US$ 328,32 juta
Growth: +59%

Analysis: ⚠️ Debt naik signifikan untuk fund ekspansi ⚠️ Need to monitor debt management

Debt to Equity Ratio:

Ekuitas 2024: US$ 753 juta
Liabilitas: US$ 328 juta
DER: 0,44x (masih healthy! <1x)

✅ Debt level still manageable

Profitability Metrics:

ROE (Return on Equity):

ROE 2024: 32,69 / 753 x 100% = 4,34%

⚠️ Relatif rendah, tapi karena massive asset growth (denominatornya naik drastis)

Dengan trend profit Q1 2025, ROE akan improve significantly.

ROA (Return on Assets):

ROA 2024: 32,69 / 1,080 x 100% = 3,03%

⚠️ Rendah, but expected untuk infrastructure company (asset-heavy)

Cash Flow:

Operating Cash Flow: Strong dan positive (exact data tidak disclosed tapi implied dari profit growth)

Investing Cash Flow: Negative (heavy capex untuk expansion - expected)

Financing Cash Flow: Positive (debt + IPO proceeds)

Analysis: ✅ Cash generation improving ✅ Sufficient untuk fund operations ✅ IPO proceeds (Rp 2,37 triliun) will supercharge expansion

PART 3: Valuasi - Murah atau Mahal?

Current Valuation (31 Oktober 2025):

Harga Saham: Rp 1.735

Jumlah Saham Beredar (post-IPO): 124,8 miliar saham

Market Cap: Rp 216,5 triliun

PER (Price to Earnings Ratio):

Calculation:

EPS 2024 = Rp 533 miliar / 124,8 miliar saham = Rp 4,27
PER = Rp 1.735 / Rp 4,27 = 406x

Wait, 406x?! That's insane!

BUT: Ini misleading karena:

  1. Profit 2024 masih partial year (before full operation)
  2. Q1 2025 profit Rp 493 miliar → Annualized ~Rp 2 triliun

Adjusted PER (using 2025 projection):

Projected EPS 2025 = Rp 2 triliun / 124,8 miliar = Rp 16
PER = Rp 1.735 / Rp 16 = 108x

Still high!

Industry Average (Infrastructure/Utility): 15-25x

Verdict: MAHAL berdasarkan PER ⚠️

PBV (Price to Book Value):

Book Value per Share:

Ekuitas: Rp 12,3 triliun (US$ 753 juta x 16.300)
BVPS = Rp 12,3 T / 124,8 miliar = Rp 98,5
PBV = Rp 1.735 / Rp 98,5 = 17,6x

Industry Average: 1,5-3x

Verdict: SANGAT MAHAL berdasarkan PBV ❌

Dividend Yield:

Belum ada dividend history (baru IPO Juli 2025)

Expected: Low dividend (karena fokus growth/expansion)

Untuk infrastructure company in growth phase, typical dividend payout ratio: 20-30%

Estimated Dividend Yield: 0,5-1% (very low)

Valuation Conclusion:

📊 PER: 108x (vs industry 15-25x) - Overvalued

📊 PBV: 17,6x (vs industry 1,5-3x) - Sangat Overvalued

📊 Dividend Yield: <1% - Tidak attractive

Overall Valuation: MAHAL ❌

BUT... (ada "but" yang penting)

Valuasi tinggi bisa justified kalau: ✅ Growth rate super tinggi (✓ terbukti: +272% profit Q1) ✅ Market leadership (✓ backed by Prajogo + EGCO) ✅ Expansion potential besar (✓ dana IPO Rp 2,37 T untuk growth)

So: Valuasi mahal, tapi might be justified jika growth trajectory terpenuhi.

Investment Style:

  • Value Investors: Avoid (terlalu mahal)
  • Growth Investors: Consider (bayar premium untuk growth)

PART 4: Kelebihan CDIA

✅ Kelebihan #1: Backing yang Super Kuat

Prajogo Pangestu (terkaya #2 Indonesia) + EGCO Group (Thailand energy giant)

Artinya:

  • ✅ Akses capital unlimited
  • ✅ Network luas (government relations, corporate connections)
  • ✅ Management expertise proven
  • ✅ Credibility tinggi di pasar

✅ Kelebihan #2: Captive Market

Customer utama: TPIA (parent company)

Revenue stability karena:

  • TPIA always need infrastructure support
  • Long-term contracts
  • Predictable demand
  • Low customer acquisition cost

✅ Kelebihan #3: Growth Trajectory Luar Biasa

Profit growth Q1 2025: +272% YoY

Ini bukan fluke:

  • Expansion plan clear (kapal, port, storage)
  • Dana IPO Rp 2,37 T untuk fund growth
  • Infrastructure boom Indonesia

Projected: Revenue bisa 2-3x dalam 3-5 tahun

✅ Kelebihan #4: Diversified Revenue Streams

4 pilar bisnis:

  • Energi (stable, recurring)
  • Logistik (growth engine)
  • Pelabuhan (strategic)
  • Air (essential)

Risk spread across multiple businesses.

✅ Kelebihan #5: Infrastructure Boom Indonesia

Macro tailwind:

  • Government fokus infrastructure development
  • Industrial zones expanding (Cilegon, Tuban, dll)
  • Petrochemical demand rising (plastic, chemicals)
  • Logistics need increasing (e-commerce, trade)

CDIA positioned perfectly untuk ride this wave.

✅ Kelebihan #6: High Barrier to Entry

Infrastructure business = Capital intensive

Not easy untuk competitors masuk:

  • Need billions untuk build port, kapal, power plant
  • Regulatory approvals kompleks
  • Established relationships matter

CDIA punya moat yang cukup kuat.

✅ Kelebihan #7: Strategic Expansion Plan

Dana IPO allocation:

  • 63,2% → Pelabuhan & penyimpanan
  • 36,8% → Logistik (kapal)

Focus areas yang high-growth potential.

Kapal expansion:

  • Current: 7 kapal
  • Target 2025: 14 kapal (double!)
  • Capex: US$185 juta

Port expansion:

  • Tangki storage tambahan
  • Pipa ethylene
  • Jetty & dermaga

Capacity increase = Revenue increase

PART 5: Kekurangan & Risiko CDIA

❌ Kekurangan #1: Valuasi Sangat Mahal

PER 108x, PBV 17,6x - Jauh di atas industry average.

Risk: Kalau growth nggak sesuai ekspektasi, correction bisa brutal.

Historical lesson: Banyak IPO hype yang overvalued, 1-2 tahun kemudian turun 50-70%.

❌ Kekurangan #2: Customer Concentration Risk

Revenue heavily dependent pada TPIA (parent).

What if:

  • TPIA business slowdown?
  • TPIA diversifikasi ke supplier lain?
  • TPIA financial trouble?

CDIA kena impact langsung.

Mitigation: Expand ke third-party customers (lagi dalam proses).

❌ Kekurangan #3: Pilar Energi Dominance (73% revenue)

Over-reliance pada satu segment.

Risks:

  • Gangguan operasional power plant
  • Perubahan tarif listrik
  • Kompetisi dari power producer lain
  • Teknologi disruption (renewable energy)

Diversifikasi revenue masih kurang.

❌ Kekurangan #4: Debt Growing Fast

Debt naik 59% di 2024 untuk fund expansion.

Current DER 0,44x masih aman, tapi trend naik.

Watch out:

  • Interest rate risk (kalau suku bunga naik)
  • Debt servicing pressure
  • Financial flexibility berkurang

❌ Kekurangan #5: Execution Risk

Ambitious expansion plan:

  • 7 kapal baru (2025)
  • Port & storage development
  • Operasional scaling

Risks:

  • Project delays (construction, regulatory)
  • Cost overruns (budget exceed)
  • Operational challenges (manage growing fleet)
  • Integration issues (new assets)

History shows: Banyak companies gagal execute expansion meskipun punya capital.

❌ Kekurangan #6: Regulatory & Political Risk

Infrastructure heavily regulated:

  • Tarif listrik (government-set)
  • Environmental permits
  • Port operating licenses
  • Safety & compliance standards

Changes in regulation bisa significantly impact business.

Political risk:

  • Policy shifts (new government)
  • Nationalism (local content requirements)
  • Trade policies (export-import)

❌ Kekurangan #7: Operational Risks

Infrastructure business prone to:

  • Accidents (shipping, port, power plant)
  • Natural disasters (earthquake, tsunami - Cilegon area)
  • Equipment failures
  • Supply chain disruptions

One major incident bisa halt operations, damage reputation, liability costs.

❌ Kekurangan #8: Limited Track Record

CDIA baru IPO Juli 2025 - belum ada long-term public track record.

Unknowns:

  • Bagaimana management navigate public company pressures?
  • Konsistensi reporting & transparency?
  • Corporate governance praktis?

Historical data terbatas untuk assess true performance capacity.

❌ Kekurangan #9: No Dividend (Yet)

Growth phase = Low/no dividend

Not suitable untuk income investors.

Capital gain jadi satu-satunya return expectation - risky kalau harga turun.

❌ Kekurangan #10: Market Sentiment Dependent

Stock performance sangat tied ke:

  • TPIA performance (parent)
  • Prajogo Pangestu reputation
  • Infrastructure sector sentiment
  • IPO market cycle

External factors beyond company control.

PART 6: Prospek Masa Depan

Short-Term (1-2 tahun):

Outlook: POSITIF ✅

Drivers:

  1. IPO proceeds Rp 2,37 T mulai deployed
  2. Kapal baru operational (revenue contribution)
  3. Quarterly results likely strong (sustain Q1 2025 momentum)
  4. Market excitement masih ada (baru IPO)

Expected: Stock bisa sustain atau naik moderate (10-30%)

Risk: Profit-taking dari early investors bisa create volatility.

Medium-Term (3-5 tahun):

Outlook: SANGAT POSITIF ✅✅

Drivers:

  1. Expansion projects completed
    • 14 kapal operational (vs 7 sekarang)
    • Port & storage capacity doubled
  2. Revenue diversification - Third-party customers growing
  3. Indonesia infrastructure boom continues
  4. TPIA Tuban project (massive petrochemical complex) - CDIA akan jadi key infrastructure provider

Potential:

  • Revenue bisa 2-3x lipat
  • Profit bisa 3-5x lipat (scale + margin expansion)
  • Market cap potential: Rp 400-600 triliun (vs Rp 217 T sekarang)

This is the sweet spot untuk long-term investors.

Long-Term (5-10 tahun):

Outlook: POSITIF dengan Caveats ✅⚠️

Upside Scenarios: ✅ Scenario 1: Infrastructure Consolidator

  • CDIA acquire smaller players
  • Jadi dominant infrastructure provider di Indonesia
  • Market cap Rp 1+ triliun possible

✅ Scenario 2: Regional Expansion

  • Expand ke Southeast Asia (via EGCO network)
  • Logistics, port, energy di Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines
  • Growth runway extended

✅ Scenario 3: New Business Lines

  • Renewable energy (solar, wind)
  • Data center infrastructure
  • Smart city solutions
  • EV charging networks

Downside Scenarios: ❌ Scenario 1: Growth Plateau

  • Expansion execution failures
  • Market saturation
  • Competition intensifies
  • Margins compressed

❌ Scenario 2: Disruption

  • Technology shifts (autonomous shipping, renewable energy)
  • Customer diversifikasi away dari CDIA
  • Regulatory changes unfavorable

Most Likely: Moderate growth dengan beberapa challenges. Not explosive, but steady.

PART 7: Perbandingan dengan Kompetitor

Direct Competitors (Infrastructure/Logistics):

Susah cari direct competitor karena CDIA diversified. Tapi comparable companies:

Peer #1: PT Pelabuhan Indonesia (PELNI) - Port

Similarity: Port & logistics operations

PELNI:

  • Market Cap: Rp 50 triliun
  • PER: 18x
  • PBV: 2,1x
  • Dividend Yield: 3,5%

CDIA:

  • Market Cap: Rp 217 triliun (4x larger!)
  • PER: 108x
  • PBV: 17,6x
  • Dividend Yield: 0%

Verdict: CDIA jauh lebih mahal. PELNI better value.

Peer #2: PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) - Utility/Energy

Similarity: Utility infrastructure, captive customers

PGAS:

  • Market Cap: Rp 35 triliun
  • PER: 8x
  • PBV: 1,2x
  • Dividend Yield: 5%

CDIA:

  • Market Cap: Rp 217 triliun
  • PER: 108x
  • PBV: 17,6x

Verdict: PGAS way cheaper + dividend attractive. CDIA premium unjustified vs PGAS.

Peer #3: PT Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA) - Logistics

Similarity: Transportation & logistics

ASSA:

  • Market Cap: Rp 18 triliun
  • PER: 12x
  • PBV: 3x
  • Dividend Yield: 2%

CDIA:

  • Market Cap: Rp 217 triliun
  • PER: 108x

Verdict: ASSA far cheaper untuk logistics exposure.

Comparison Conclusion:

CDIA trading at MASSIVE PREMIUM vs comparable companies.

Justified?

Partially:

  • ✅ Growth rate higher (272% vs peers ~10-20%)
  • ✅ Backing stronger (Prajogo + EGCO)
  • ✅ Expansion potential larger

But:

  • ❌ Premium too extreme (10x PER vs peers!)
  • ❌ Execution risk high
  • ❌ Limited track record

For value investors: Peers offer better value.

For growth investors: CDIA worth premium, tapi current valuation still stretched.

PART 8: Rekomendasi Investasi

Rating: HOLD / SELECTIVE BUY ⚠️✅

Bukan Strong Buy, bukan Avoid. Depends on your profile.

COCOK UNTUK:

✅ Growth Investors

  • Lo percaya Indonesia infrastructure boom
  • Lo comfortable dengan volatility
  • Time horizon 3-5+ tahun
  • Risk tolerance tinggi

Action: BUY on dips (jangan chase rally)

Target entry: Rp 1.500-1.600 (kalau koreksi)

Target price (3 tahun): Rp 2.500-3.500 (+45-100%)

✅ Momentum Traders

  • Lo aktif trading
  • Bisa monitor daily
  • Paham technical analysis

Action: TRADE the swings

Support: Rp 1.600-1.700
Resistance: Rp 1.900-2.000

✅ Fans of Prajogo Pangestu

  • Lo percaya billionaire backing matters
  • Lo invest based on management quality
  • Lo mau "own a piece" of empire

Action: ACCUMULATE gradually

Don't all-in. Build position 20-30% portfolio max.

TIDAK COCOK UNTUK:

❌ Value Investors

  • Lo cari valuasi murah (PER <15x, PBV <2x)
  • Lo fokus dividend income
  • Lo risk-averse

Alternative: Look at PGAS, PELNI, ASSA (cheaper valuations)

❌ Short-Term Investors

  • Lo butuh uang dalam 6-12 bulan
  • Lo gak bisa tahan volatility
  • Lo expect quick profit

Warning: Short-term bisa turun 20-30%. Lo might panic sell.

❌ Income Investors (Retirees, etc)

  • Lo butuh cash flow dari dividen
  • Lo prioritas stability over growth

Alternative: Go for high-dividend stocks (PGAS 5%, TLKM 4%, BBRI 3%)

Action Plan by Investor Type:

Tipe 1: Aggressive Growth (High Risk Tolerance)

Allocation: 10-15% portfolio

Strategy:

  1. Buy: Rp 1.500-1.700 range (on dips)
  2. Add more: Kalau turun ke Rp 1.300-1.400
  3. Hold: 3-5 tahun minimum
  4. Target: Rp 3.000+ (2x return)
  5. Stop loss: Rp 1.000 (jika fundamental broken)

Tipe 2: Moderate Growth (Balanced)

Allocation: 5-8% portfolio

Strategy:

  1. Buy: Dollar-cost averaging over 6 months
  2. Entry points: Rp 1.500, Rp 1.600, Rp 1.700 (split 3)
  3. Hold: 2-3 tahun 4

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